Active Wave — NOW
Wave 4 · Optics
36% EML laser shortage · LITE +108% YTD · CPO deployment H2 2026
◄ Breakout in progress
Highest-Conviction Thesis
95% · Monetizers
META & NOW on any AI selloff. Q2–Q3 earnings separate monetizers from spenders.
Wave 7 · Emerging NOW
Critical Bottleneck
Power Grid
50% of AI projects delayed. $200B GEV backlog. 128-week transformer lead times. Won't resolve before 2028.
Multi-year constraint
Pre-Consensus Pick
CXL Memory
ALAB — the SNDK of 2025. CXL 3.0 products arrive 2026–27. Entry window open now before consensus.
50–100%+ alpha potential
AI Investment Wave Timeline
Wave 1 of 8
What Happened / Thesis
Key Stocks
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Investment Thesis Checklist → Methodology Research Archive
Sector Allocation by Opportunity Size
Macro Backdrop — Key Constraints
Top 3 Highest-Alpha Right Now
Most Critical Bottlenecks
12 themes
Alpha Heat:
Pre-consensus
Emerging
Breakout
High conviction
Very high
Critical / Now
Rank ↕ Theme ↕ Alpha % ↕ Conviction ↕ Demand ↕ Timeline Status Key Tickers
YTD 2026 · Color Intensity = Return Magnitude
Full Performance Breakdown
#TickerCompany YTD ReturnBarToday %ThemeMarket CapSignal
Risk vs Alpha — Bubble size = Market Opportunity ($B)
High Risk
High Alpha Low Risk
High Alpha ★ Low Risk
Low Alpha High Risk
Low Alpha
Upcoming Catalysts & Key Events — 2026
Sample Allocation (Educational Illustration)
Position Sizing by Conviction
Sector Allocation
Investment Thesis Summary
Score 0–100:
0–20 Minimal
20–40 Low
40–65 Medium
65–80 High
80–90 Very High
90–100 Critical
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